Omituntun 3.0 on the Brink: The Adekanmbi Gamble, The Civil Servant Factor, and the Looming Trap for Seyi Makinde

Ayekooto Media

  

As the political clock winds down on Governor Seyi Makinde’s final term, the arithmetic for the 2027 transition—dubbed 'Omituntun 3.0'—is generating intense seismic waves across Oyo State. When a sitting governor prepares to hand over the baton, the choice of his successor and his administrative track record become the twin pillars upon which his legacy will either stand tall or crumble into historical oblivion. 

Recent political murmurs suggest that Governor Makinde is heavily considering endorsing Abimbola Adekanmbi, a former Commissioner for Finance, to succeed him. But is this a masterstroke of political engineering, or a fatal miscalculation that could collapse the entire Omituntun dynasty? 

To answer this, we must objectively dissect Makinde’s seven-year reign, the political profile of his alleged anointed candidate, and the silent landmines waiting to detonate in 2027.

Giving Caesar His Due: Makinde’s 7-Year Strides

Before dissecting the looming crisis, it is politically and intellectually honest to acknowledge the undeniable milestones Governor Makinde has achieved. For the past seven years, he has successfully rebranded governance in Oyo State. 

The Salary Master:He fundamentally altered the civil service narrative by ensuring salaries and pensions are paid promptly on the 25th of every month. 

Educational & Infrastructural Milestones: Securing the sole ownership of LAUTECH, upgrading the Emmanuel Alayande College of Education to a university, and linking the state’s zones via major road networks (like the Moniya-Iseyin and Oyo-Iseyin roads) are feats that history will kindly remember.

However, the goodwill generated by these achievements is heavily threatened by a series of political and administrative missteps.

The Abimbola Adekanmbi Conundrum: A Brilliant Technocrat with a Heavy Baggage

Who is Bimbo Adekanmbi? Born in 1973, Adekanmbi is undoubtedly a brilliant financial mind. With a formidable background traversing Obafemi Awolowo University, Oxford Brookes University, and high-level corporate stints at Verizon, Kingfisher, and GlaxoSmithKline, his technocratic pedigree is unassailable. 

Yet, in Nigerian politics, pedigree is only half the equation; 'perception' is the other. Adekanmbi served as the Commissioner for Finance, Budget, and Planning from 2016 to 2019 under the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi. This is where the political math becomes dangerously flawed.

The Civil Servant Factor (The 60% Voting Block):

Civil servants and their dependents constitute the largest and most potent voting bloc in Oyo State. The Ajimobi era, particularly between 2016 and 2019 when Adekanmbi manned the state’s treasury, is remembered by the workforce as the "dark days" of fractional salaries, protracted tertiary institution strikes, and an arrogant posture toward organized labor. 

If Governor Makinde presents the very man who managed the finances during their darkest financial trauma, will the civil servants vote for him? The psychological resistance is massive. To the Oyo State workforce, Adekanmbi is the face of the Ajimobi fiscal policy. 

A candid advice to Governor Makinde: Do not rely on the sycophancy of politicians whispering in your ears. Deploy a simple, anonymous Google Opinion Poll directly to the smartphones of Oyo State civil servants and teachers. Ask them one question: "How do you feel about Bimbo Adekanmbi as your next Governor?"The unvarnished, brutal feedback will shock the Agodi Government House.

The Looming Woes That Could Sink Omituntun 3.0

Beyond the choice of candidate, several administrative landmines threaten the 2027 transition:

1. The "Oke-Ogun Lokan" Tsunami

The geopolitical alignment of Oyo State is shifting. The Oke-Ogun zone, which boasts immense voting power and has historically played second fiddle, is aggressively agitating for the number one seat. The 'Oke-Ogun Lokan' (It is Oke-Ogun’s turn) movement is no longer a whisper; it is a battle cry. Attempting to impose another Ibadan man (Adekanmbi) after Makinde’s eight years will trigger a massive protest vote from the entire Oke-Ogun region. They will view it as the ultimate betrayal of the unwritten zoning equity.

2. The Agony of the Ibadan Circular Road Project

While the 110km Ibadan Circular Road is a visionary economic backbone designed to secure the city’s next 20 years, its execution has birthed deep resentment. The sudden expansion of the road setback (from the gazetted 75 meters to a massive 150-500 meters) has led to the demolition of thousands of homes across Akinyele, Egbeda, Lagelu, Ona-Ara, and Oluyole. Entire communities have been wiped out, leaving displaced, uncompensated, and heartbroken citizens. You cannot build a political empire on the tears of the masses. These displaced citizens have PVCs, and they will vote with their grief.

3. The Collapse of Local Government Administration

Under the current administration, the grassroots governance structure has practically collapsed. Local government councils have been reduced to mere appendages of the state government, starved of true autonomy and developmental funds. The local government chairmen are largely perceived as figureheads with zero capacity to fix inner roads, primary health centers, or clear drainages. The grassroots voter is alienated and angry.

The Bottomline

Governor Seyi Makinde is at a critical crossroad. He has the opportunity to install a successor and solidify himself as the modern godfather of Oyo politics, but imposing a candidate with the historical baggage of the 2016-2019 era is a political suicide mission. 

To succeed, Makinde must look beyond his immediate comfort zone, respect the geopolitical agitations of Oke-Ogun, urgently heal the wounds of the Circular Road victims, and remember that the civil service never forgets. If he ignores these realities, Omituntun 3.0 will crash before it even takes off.

David Alani Ige (The Scribe)

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Ayekooto Media

Chronicling our heritage; architecting our future.

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David Alani Ige (The Scribe)

Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Ayekooto Media

David Alani Ige is a seasoned journalist, strategic analyst, and the visionary publisher of Ayekooto Media. With a relentless commitment to archiving Nigeria's political realities and delivering the unvarnished truth, he has built a formidable platform for deep-dive reportage and editorial excellence. He is widely known by his readers and peers as "The Scribe".